Sevilla vs Alaves prediction, team news and preview

Sevilla vs Alaves preview: what the match decides

Sevilla host Alaves at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán on Friday 6 November 2026, in round 12 of La Liga. The short answer to the main question: Sevilla are the sensible lean on home advantage and recent results, but the margin for error is slim because both sides are conceding plenty.

Sevilla sit sixth on 17 points from 11 games, with five wins, two draws and four defeats. They have scored 17 and conceded 19, a goal difference of -2, and that position currently carries Conference League qualification. Barcelona lead the table on 30 points, so Sevilla are 13 points off the top.

Alaves are 11th on 12 points, with three wins, three draws and five defeats from 11. Their record is 15 scored and 17 conceded, which also gives a goal difference of -2. The two teams are level on that measure, so the five-point gap is down to results rather than underlying goal numbers.

The arithmetic shows what the match decides. A Sevilla win would open an eight-point gap, a draw would leave it at five, and an Alaves win would cut it to two. For Sevilla it is a chance to consolidate a European place, while Alaves need a result to stop a slide.

Sevilla and Alaves recent form

Across their last five games in all competitions, Sevilla have two wins, one draw and two defeats, in the order draw, loss, win, win, loss. They have scored 10 and conceded 10, an average of 2 goals for and 2 against per game. They scored in every one of those five matches, kept two clean sheets, and saw both teams score three times. Four of the five produced more than 2.5 goals.

The results were volatile. Sevilla drew 3-3 at Levante, lost 1-4 at Real Madrid, beat Osasuna 2-0 at home, won 3-0 at Hortaleza in the Copa del Rey and then lost 1-3 at Getafe on 1 November. Their one home game in that run was the 2-0 win over Osasuna, a clean sheet.

Alaves are in far worse shape. They have no wins in their last five, with two draws and three defeats, in the order draw, loss, loss, draw, loss. They have scored 4 and conceded 11, an average of 0.8 scored and 2.2 conceded per game, with one clean sheet and one game without scoring.

Their away form in that sample is the most worrying detail. In three away games they drew 0-0 at Athletic Club, lost 1-2 at Celta Vigo and lost 1-6 at Barcelona on 31 October. That is two goals scored and eight conceded, or 0.67 for and 2.67 against per game, with one clean sheet.

Sevilla vs Alaves team news

Sevilla have the longer list. M. Bueno is out because of a red card, Marcao is out with a muscle injury and Peque is out with a hamstring injury. I. Romero (knee) and M. Sierra (shoulder) are listed as doubtful.

That is three confirmed absentees and two question marks for a side that has conceded 10 in its last five games. Our data does not give positions, so we cannot say where the gaps fall. Any late fitness news on Romero and Sierra will matter for how settled Sevilla look at the back.

Alaves have one reported absentee: M. Rodriguez is out with an ankle injury. No doubtful players are listed for the visitors, so on the available information their squad is in better shape than Sevilla's.

No line-ups are published in our data yet. They are confirmed about an hour before kick-off, and that is when the doubts over Romero and Sierra should become clear.

Sevilla vs Alaves storylines

Sevilla's story is of a team that scores freely but ships goals. They are sixth and in a Conference League place, yet they have lost 1-4 at Real Madrid and 1-3 at Getafe in the last few weeks. The Getafe defeat on 1 November is fresh, and a home game against a struggling opponent is a natural opportunity to respond.

The positives are real, though. The 3-0 Copa del Rey win at Hortaleza and the 2-0 league win over Osasuna both came without conceding. Sevilla also come into this one with a suspension to manage, with M. Bueno missing after his red card.

Alaves arrive after the heaviest defeat of their season in our data, the 1-6 loss at Barcelona on 31 October. Before that came a 1-1 home draw with Malaga, a 1-2 defeat at Celta Vigo and a 1-2 home defeat to Atletico Madrid. They have not won in the five games we have, and the three defeats in that run each came by a goal or more.

The table adds a little pressure. At 11th with 12 points, Alaves are not in a crisis position on the numbers we have, but another defeat on the road would extend a poor run and leave Sevilla pulling further clear.

Where Sevilla vs Alaves will be decided

The first battle is Sevilla's attack against Alaves' back line. Sevilla average 2 goals per game over their last five and scored in all of them, while Alaves have conceded 2.2 per game overall and 2.67 away from home. On those numbers, Sevilla should create chances.

The second is whether Alaves can score more than once. They found the net in four of their last five games, but never more than a single goal, finishing with four in total. A one-goal return is enough for a draw only if Sevilla's defence holds, and Sevilla have conceded in three of their last five.

Tempo and openness point towards goals. Four of Sevilla's last five games had more than 2.5 goals, and three of Alaves' five did. Both teams scored in four of Alaves' five matches and three of Sevilla's.

The data does not split out set pieces, so we will not claim an edge there. What the numbers do show is that Sevilla's defensive absences and Alaves' away record are the two variables most likely to decide the match.

Sevilla vs Alaves head-to-head

Going by the six meetings listed, the history favours the visitors. Alaves won three, Sevilla won one and two were drawn. The meetings produced 16 goals, or 2.67 per game. Both teams scored in five of the six, and three had more than 2.5 goals.

The most recent meeting was a 1-1 draw at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán on 14 February 2026. Before that Alaves won 1-0 at home in the Copa del Rey on 17 December 2025. Sevilla's one win in the sequence was 2-1 at Alaves on 20 September 2025, a La Liga match.

Home advantage has not helped Sevilla in this fixture. Of the three meetings in Seville, two were 1-1 draws (February 2026 and April 2025) and one was a 3-2 win for Alaves in January 2024. Alaves also won 2-1 at home on 20 September 2024.

These results carry some weight, but they are a small sample, and the teams' current form and squads matter more than a history that spans three seasons. What the pattern does suggest is that this fixture is rarely one-sided.

Sevilla vs Alaves prediction

Our lean is a narrow Sevilla win. Three facts drive it. Alaves have lost three of their last five and have conceded 8 in three away games. Sevilla score about two goals per game. And Sevilla have a home clean sheet in their only recent home game, against Osasuna. A 2-1 Sevilla result would fit that profile.

On goals, we lean towards more than 2.5 being slightly likelier than not. Four of Sevilla's last five matches cleared that mark, as did three of Alaves' five and three of the six head-to-head meetings. Both teams scoring is also a reasonable lean, given Alaves' record of finding one goal in four of their last five games.

The risks are clear. Sevilla are missing M. Bueno, Marcao and Peque, with Romero and Sierra doubtful, and they have lost twice in their last five. Alaves have also won three of the six listed meetings, so a draw or upset would not be a surprise.

The model edge is modest rather than large. If the Sevilla line-up is missing both doubtful players, we would trim the home lean slightly. MATCH PULSE's three AI engines, GPT, Claude and Gemini, publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch Sevilla vs Alaves live

Sevilla vs Alaves is a La Liga match on Friday 6 November 2026, and the official broadcasters differ by country. In Spain it is listed on Movistar Plus+ and DAZN. In the United Kingdom and Ireland the listed broadcasters are Disney+ and Premier Sports.

In the United States the listed broadcaster is ESPN. In Canada it is TSN and RDS, and in Australia beIN Sports. In Mexico the match is listed on Sky Sports and Canal 5, and in Argentina on ESPN and DSports. In Brazil it is CazéTV and SportyNet.

In Europe, DAZN is listed in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Italy (alongside Mediaset), France (alongside Disney+) and Portugal. Ziggo Sport is listed in the Netherlands. In the Middle East and North Africa, beIN Sports is listed in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt, among others.

In Nigeria and South Africa the listed broadcasters are SuperSport, StarTimes, DAZN and SportyTV. In India it is FanCode, in Japan DAZN and U-Next, and in South Korea Coupang Play. If your country is not named here, check the La Liga broadcast partner there and its official app.

Only official rights holders are listed; availability can change. Watching through unofficial streams is unsafe and unfair to the clubs.

Frequently asked questions