Derby vs Bolton prediction, team news and preview

Derby vs Bolton: what the match decides

Derby host Bolton in Championship Round 15 on Friday 6 November 2026 at Pride Park Stadium. The match is a meeting of two sides in the lower half, but they sit in very different places. Derby are 23rd on seven points and in the relegation zone, while Bolton are 17th on 17 points.

That ten-point gap is the main story. Derby have won once in 14 league games (W1 D4 L9) and have a goal difference of -18. Bolton's record of W5 D2 L7 is modest, but a win would carry them further from the bottom three, and the leaders Middlesbrough are on 28 points.

For Derby, the match decides whether a run of five league defeats in six can be halted. A first home win against a side with the stronger away record would be a notable step, and our analysis leans towards the visitors.

Derby and Bolton recent form

Derby's last five league games read LLDLL: no wins, one draw and four defeats. They scored three goals and conceded 14, which is 0.6 scored and 2.8 conceded per game. They have no clean sheets in that run and failed to score twice. The heaviest results were 1-4 at QPR, 1-4 at Millwall and 0-4 at home to Norwich on 3 November.

The home figures are worse still. In two games at Pride Park, Derby have lost both, scoring none and conceding five (2.5 per game). They were beaten 0-1 by Stoke City and 0-4 by Norwich.

Bolton's last five are WDLLW: two wins, a draw and two defeats, with seven goals scored and nine conceded (1.4 and 1.8 per game). They kept two clean sheets and failed to score once. The two defeats were at home, 1-5 to Middlesbrough and 2-3 to Bristol City.

Away from home they look a different team. Bolton have played three away games, winning two and drawing one, scoring four and conceding one. That is 0.33 conceded per game with two clean sheets, including a 3-1 win at Wolves, a 0-0 draw at Southampton and a 1-0 win at Charlton on 3 November.

Derby vs Bolton team news

Derby have a long list. Seven players are out: P. Agyemang (Achilles tendon injury), M. Clarke (calf injury), C. Forsyth (knee injury), D. Murkin (hamstring injury), S. Langas (injury), C. Taylor (injury) and E. Cashin (listed as inactive). J. Ward is doubtful, also listed as inactive. For a side that has conceded 14 goals in five games, that many absentees points to limited options.

Bolton have five players out: E. Erhahon (thigh injury), R. Hardie (hamstring injury), J. McAtee (knee injury), and J. Nelson and E. Toal, both listed as inactive. G. Bazunu is doubtful, listed as inactive.

Our data does not say which of these players start regularly, so the effect on each side's shape is hard to quantify. Line-ups are not yet published and are confirmed about an hour before kick-off. We will not guess at the XIs.

Derby and Bolton storylines

Derby's season is defined by goals at both ends: 11 scored and 29 conceded in 14 games, the worst goal difference in the data we hold for this match. They have turned only one of 14 games into a win, and they come into this one having lost 0-4 to Norwich on 3 November. The pressure is on to find any positive result.

Bolton arrive with mixed momentum. A 1-5 home defeat to Middlesbrough on 23 October and a 2-3 loss to Bristol City on 31 October raised questions about their defence. They answered with a 1-0 win at Charlton on 3 November, a result that moved them back into a position of relative comfort in 17th.

The match also has a short turnaround for both sides, who played on 3 November. We have no information on squad rotation, so treat that only as context.

Where Derby vs Bolton will be decided

The central contrast is Derby's defence against Bolton's attack. Derby concede 2.8 per game over their last five and 2.5 at home. Bolton score 1.4 per game overall but only 1.33 away, so they do not need to be prolific to profit. One or two clear chances may be enough.

The other side of it is Derby's attack against Bolton's away defence. Derby average 0.6 goals per game recently and have not scored at home this season. Bolton have conceded once in three away games. Unless that changes, Derby look short of the output to take points.

Game state could matter. Derby have conceded heavily in games that open up, such as 1-4 twice and 0-4 once in their last five. If Bolton score first, Derby may have to chase, and that has not worked for them lately.

Derby vs Bolton head-to-head

The last six meetings, all in the Championship or League One, split Derby three wins, Bolton two and one draw. They averaged two goals per game, with both teams scoring in two of the six and three games finishing over 2.5 goals.

Venue has shaped the history. Derby won all three of their home games in the series: 4-0 in April 2019, 2-1 in January 2023 and 1-0 in March 2024, the most recent meeting. Bolton won two of their three home games, 1-0 in September 2018 and 2-1 in September 2023, with a 0-0 draw in December 2022.

Those meetings pre-date both sides' current form, so the head-to-head is a context point rather than a driver of our lean.

Derby vs Bolton prediction

Our lean is a Bolton win, with a draw the next most likely outcome. Three facts drive it: Derby have lost four of their last five and conceded 2.8 goals per game, they have lost both home games without scoring, and Bolton have lost none of their three away games, with two clean sheets.

On goals, we lean towards a moderate total. Bolton's away games have been low-scoring, with one of three going over 2.5, while Derby's defence invites chances. The most probable shape is Bolton scoring once or twice and Derby struggling to score, though a total of three or more is quite possible.

The main risks to this read are the long Derby injury list proving less damaging than it looks, a response from a home crowd, and Bolton's home defensive problems carrying into this trip. Line-ups could shift the picture. MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch Derby vs Bolton

No official broadcasters are listed in our data for this match. To watch it live legally, check the Championship's official broadcast partner in your country and its official app.

Coverage and availability differ by region, so confirm it through the competition's official channels before the match on Friday 6 November 2026.

We have not listed this competition's broadcasters yet. Check the competition's official broadcast partner in your country and its official app.

Only official rights holders are listed; availability can change. Watching through unofficial streams is unsafe and unfair to the clubs.

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