Parma vs Udinese prediction, team news and preview

Parma vs Udinese: what the match decides

Parma host Udinese at the Ennio Tardini on Wednesday 28 October 2026 in round 9 of Serie A, and the match decides more than three points. Both clubs have four points from eight games, each with one win, one draw and six defeats, yet they sit two places apart. Udinese are 17th, while Parma are 19th and inside the relegation zone.

Goal difference is what separates them. Parma are on -10 (5 scored, 15 conceded) and Udinese on -9 (9 scored, 18 conceded). A win for either side would move them ahead of the other on points, which is why this reads as an early six-pointer at the bottom end of a 20-team table. Inter lead the division with 22 points, a measure of how far both teams are from the top.

The short answer to the question most readers arrive with: this looks like a tight, low-quality-in-attack match between two sides who have lost four of their last five and struggle to score. Our lean, explained below, gives Parma a slight edge at home, but a draw is a very live outcome.

Parma and Udinese recent form

Parma's last five matches read L-W-L-L-L: one win and four defeats, with 4 goals scored and 11 conceded. That is 0.8 scored and 2.2 conceded per game, with no clean sheets, two games without a goal, three in which both teams scored and all five finishing with more than 2.5 goals. The sequence runs Como away (1-2), Genoa at home (2-1), Inter away (0-3), Torino at home (0-3) and Lazio away (1-2).

At the Tardini the picture is little better. Parma have played two home games in that run, winning one and losing one, scoring 2 and conceding 4 (1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded per game). The home win was the 2-1 against Genoa on 20 September; the home defeat was the 0-3 against Torino on 19 October.

Udinese's last five are L-D-L-L-L: no wins, one draw, four defeats, 2 goals scored and 9 conceded. That works out at 0.4 scored and 1.8 conceded per game, with no clean sheets and three games in which they failed to score. The results are Cagliari at home (0-1), a friendly draw at Pogon Szczecin (1-1), Torino away (1-2), Lecce at home (0-3) and AC Milan at home (0-2). Their league form in the table reads LLLLL.

Away from home, Udinese have played two games in this run, drawing one and losing one, scoring 2 and conceding 3 (1.0 and 1.5 per game). The draw there was the friendly at Pogon Szczecin, so their competitive away record in the sample is thinner than the numbers suggest.

Parma vs Udinese team news

Parma have four players listed as out. P. Almqvist is out with a calf injury, H. Nicolussi Caviglia with a thigh injury and N. Elphege with an illness. L. Valenti is also out, with the reason given as the coach's decision, so that one is a selection matter rather than a fitness issue. Our data does not list any doubtful players for the hosts.

For a side that has scored four goals in its last five matches, losing options in the squad matters, though our data does not say where each player would have played. Ruling out illness is the item most likely to change, since a short-term absence can clear quickly.

Udinese have the longer list. D. Alaba is out with a calf injury, V. Bayo with a thigh injury, I. Gueye with an ankle injury and A. Zanoli with a muscle injury. O. Solet is doubtful with a muscle injury, so his availability may only become clear close to the match.

That is four confirmed absentees plus one doubt for a team already averaging 0.4 goals per game in its last five. No line-ups are published in our data so far; they are confirmed about an hour before kick-off, and this section will reflect them once they are.

Storylines: two teams searching for a lift

Parma's story is the table. They are 19th with 4 points, the worst goal difference of the pair at -10, and they have won once in eight league games. The 2-1 home win over Genoa on 20 September is the only victory in their last five, and since then they have lost 0-3 at Inter, 0-3 at home to Torino and 1-2 at Lazio. Two of those three defeats came by three goals, which explains the 2.2 goals conceded per game.

Udinese's story is a run rather than a position. They are 17th, nominally the better placed, but their league form reads five defeats in a row. Over the last five matches they have been beaten by Cagliari, Torino, Lecce and AC Milan, scoring only against Torino in those games. The latest blow was the 0-2 home defeat to Milan on 25 October.

The schedule adds a small detail. Parma played at Lazio on 24 October and Udinese hosted Milan the following day, so Parma have one more day of recovery before Wednesday's match. It is a minor factor, but in a match between two sides with long injury lists it is worth noting.

What can change? A win lifts the winner to 7 points and puts the other side on 4 with the same one win in nine. For Parma it would be a first home win since the Genoa game; for Udinese it would end the run of defeats in the table form column.

Key battles: who scores first?

The central contrast is between two weak attacks and two leaky defences. Udinese have scored 0.4 goals per game in their last five, the lowest rate of either side, while Parma concede 2.2. If that pattern holds, Parma's defence will be tested less than the raw numbers imply, because Udinese have failed to score in three of their last five.

At the other end, Parma have scored 0.8 per game against Udinese's 1.8 conceded. They have failed to score in two of five, but when their attack has worked, it has produced goals against Como, Genoa and Lazio, each time one or two. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in the sample, which suggests that the first goal could be decisive: a team that goes ahead may find the opponent unable to respond, given how rarely both score freely.

The numbers disagree on tempo. All five Parma matches finished with more than 2.5 goals, while only two of Udinese's did. Parma's total goals have been inflated by heavy defeats against stronger sides rather than by open games with their own scoring, so you should not read that as a sign of a goal-heavy match against a team as blunt as Udinese.

Our data has no set-piece figures for either side, so we do not make a claim on dead-ball routines. With key players missing on both sides, structure and discipline in the first half hour may count for more than individual duels.

Parma vs Udinese head-to-head

The six meetings in our data, all in Serie A, favour Udinese: they have won four, Parma one, and one ended in a draw. The matches have averaged 3.0 goals, with both teams scoring in three of them and more than 2.5 goals in three.

The most recent meeting went Parma's way. They won 1-0 at Udinese on 18 April 2026, their only victory in the sequence. Before that Udinese had taken the three previous encounters in the list: 2-0 at the Tardini on 29 November 2025, 1-0 at home on 1 March 2025 and 3-2 at Parma on 16 September 2024.

The home side has not won any of the three listed matches at the Tardini: a 2-2 draw in February 2021, the 2-3 defeat in September 2024 and the 0-2 defeat in November 2025. The earliest meeting in the data, in October 2020, finished 3-2 to Udinese.

Treat this as context rather than a forecast. The two most recent games finished with a single goal or a two-goal gap, and the sides involved have changed since the high-scoring games of 2020 and 2024. Current form and absences weigh more heavily than a six-match sample.

Parma vs Udinese prediction

Our read is a cautious, scrappy match in which the first goal carries extra weight. Both teams have lost four of their last five, neither has kept a clean sheet, and each carries a long absence list. In that setting, small advantages count, and the home side has a few.

The lean is a narrow Parma edge, with the draw close behind. Three facts drive it. First, Udinese's attack is the weakest of the pair at 0.4 goals per game over the last five, with three blanks. Second, Parma have one more day of rest and the home ground. Third, the most recent meeting went to Parma, 1-0. Against that, Parma's defence has leaked 2.2 goals per game and Udinese have won four of the six meetings, so an away win cannot be dismissed.

On goals, the numbers point to a moderate total rather than a high one. Taking each side's scoring rate against the other's conceding rate suggests roughly 1.3 goals each, so something like 2 to 3 goals overall is the central expectation. A single early goal could open the match up, while a goalless first half would make a draw more likely.

What could change the lean: the line-ups, particularly whether Udinese's doubtful O. Solet is available, and any news on Parma's absentees. This is a lean, not a certainty, and in a match between two teams in poor form a result either way would not be a surprise. MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch Parma vs Udinese

The match is listed with official broadcasters in a large number of countries. In Italy, it is shown by DAZN and Sky Sport. In the United Kingdom, the listed broadcasters are DAZN, TNT Sports and BBC Alba, and in Ireland they are DAZN and TNT Sports.

In the United States, coverage is listed on Paramount+ and Telemundo, and in Canada on fuboTV and TLN. DAZN is the listed broadcaster in Germany, Austria, Spain, France, Belgium, Switzerland (alongside Sky Sport) and Japan. ESPN is listed across much of Latin America, including Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile and Colombia.

Elsewhere, beIN Sports is listed in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong, SuperSport in South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and many other African markets, and StarzPlay and Shasha Sports across much of the Middle East and North Africa. Other countries are covered by local rights holders such as Arena Sport, Eleven Sports, Sport TV and Setanta Sports.

Check your broadcaster's schedule for the kick-off time in your local time zone. If your country is not mentioned, look for the Serie A broadcast partner in your region and its official app.

Only official rights holders are listed; availability can change. Watching through unofficial streams is unsafe and unfair to the clubs.

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