Belgium vs Italy prediction, team news and preview

Belgium vs Italy: what the match decides

Belgium and Italy meet in round 6 of UEFA Nations League, League A Group A, on Sunday 15 November 2026 at Roi Baudouin. Italy lead the group with 10 points from 5 games (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat), a position that currently points to the play-off quarter-finals. Belgium are third on 9 points from 5, with a possible play-off place.

Only one point separates the sides, so this game can change both teams' positions. Our lean is a close contest in which Italy's attacking output gives them a small edge, though Belgium's home record keeps them firmly in it.

Belgium and Italy recent form

Belgium's last five read WLWLW: 3 wins and 2 defeats, with 8 goals scored (1.6 per game) and 6 conceded (1.2). They kept 2 clean sheets and failed to score once. At home they have played 2, winning 1 and losing 1, scoring 3 and conceding 1, with one clean sheet.

Italy's last five read LWDWW: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 11 scored (2.2 per game) and 6 conceded (1.2). They have no clean sheets in that run and failed to score once. Away from home they have played 2, winning 1 and drawing 1, scoring 5 and conceding 2.

Belgium vs Italy team news

No absences are reported in our data for either side so far, so we cannot point to any injuries or suspensions that would change the picture. Treat that as a gap in the information rather than confirmation that both squads are at full strength.

Line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off. Check them before drawing firm conclusions, particularly in attack, where both teams have relied on goals.

No absences reported so far.

Belgium vs Italy storylines

Belgium's group has swung sharply. They opened with a 2-0 win away to Italy on 25 September, then lost 0-1 at home to France, beat Türkiye 3-0 at home, lost 1-4 away to France and won 2-1 in Türkiye on 12 November. Their latest result keeps them within a point of the leaders.

Italy lost that opening game but have not lost since. They won 4-1 in Türkiye, drew 1-1 away to France, beat Türkiye 3-1 at home and beat France 3-1 on 12 November. They arrive with momentum and a chance to cement top spot, while Belgium can use the same game to avenge the September defeat and climb the table.

Where Belgium vs Italy will be decided

The central contrast is Italy's attack against Belgium's home defence. Italy score 2.2 goals per game and 2.5 away, while Belgium have conceded just 0.5 per game in two home matches. That home sample is small, but their overall rate of 1.2 conceded per game suggests Italy will get chances.

At the other end, Belgium score 1.6 per game and face an Italian defence that has not kept a clean sheet in five matches. Italy have scored and conceded in 4 of their 5 games, against 2 of 5 for Belgium. If Belgium can keep the game controlled, they can limit Italy's high-scoring pattern.

Belgium vs Italy head-to-head

Across 6 meetings, Italy have won 4, Belgium 1 and 1 has been drawn, with 2.5 goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 of the 6, and 3 produced more than 2.5 goals.

Belgium's one win is the most recent meeting, 2-0 in Italy on 25 September 2026. Before that, Italy won 1-0 in Belgium in November 2024, drew 2-2 in October 2024, won 2-1 in October 2021, won 2-1 at Euro 2020 in July 2021 and won 2-0 at Euro 2016.

Belgium vs Italy prediction

We expect an open but competitive game. Italy's 2.2 goals per game and unbeaten run since September give them a narrow model edge, while Belgium's home record and their win in the reverse fixture make a home result entirely plausible. A draw would also be a realistic outcome given the one-point gap.

On goals, our lean is towards both teams scoring and a total of around three. Italy have not kept a clean sheet in five games, and three of the last six meetings have gone over 2.5 goals. Late confirmed line-ups are the main factor that could change this read.

MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch Belgium vs Italy

No official broadcasters are listed in our data for this match. Check the UEFA Nations League's official broadcast partner in your country and its official app for live coverage.

Broadcast arrangements differ by country, so confirm the details with your local rights holder before the match. The kick-off time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

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