NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen prediction, team news and preview

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: what the match decides

Groningen arrive in seventh place with 14 points from nine games, inside the zone marked for Conference League play-offs. NEC Nijmegen are twelfth on 10 points, so a win for the hosts would close the gap on a team above them, while a Groningen win would stretch it to seven points. Feyenoord lead the table on 23 points.

The match is played on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Stadion de Goffert. It is a fixture between two sides who concede regularly, which sets up a more open game than the table positions suggest.

NEC Nijmegen and Groningen recent form

NEC are unbeaten in their last five games in all competitions (DDDDW): one win and four draws, with nine goals scored and seven conceded, or 1.8 and 1.4 per game. They have not kept a clean sheet in that run, and both teams scored in all five. At home they have drawn all three recent games (4-4 on goals), including 1-1 with GO Ahead Eagles and 2-2 with Fortuna Sittard in the league.

Groningen's last five read DDWWL, with two wins, two draws and one defeat. They have scored 13 and conceded 9, averaging 2.6 goals for and 1.8 against, and four of the five games went over 2.5 goals. Their two recent away games brought a 1-1 draw at GO Ahead Eagles and a 5-1 win at Excelsior, six goals scored and two conceded.

The latest result is a warning for Groningen: a 5-2 home defeat by Ajax on 18 October. NEC drew 1-1 at Ajax eight days earlier, and followed a Europa League win, 4-2 at Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday 22 October, with the short turnaround to this game.

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen team news

NEC have five players ruled out: E. Mor (groin injury), Y. Moslih (listed as inactive), B. Nuytinck (ankle injury), P. Sandler (injury) and D. Tadic (calf injury). That is a long list for a side playing a European match days earlier, and it limits rotation. Our data lists no doubtful players for NEC.

Groningen are without three: M. Jeng (leg injury), T. Mercera (injury) and E. van der Laan (injury). No doubtful players are listed for them either.

Line-ups are not published in our data yet. They are confirmed about an hour before kick-off, and this preview will reflect them once they are available.

Storylines for NEC Nijmegen and Groningen

For NEC the story is a run of stalemates. Their league form reads DDDLD, and they have won only two of nine league games while drawing four. The Europa League win in Zagreb showed they can finish chances, yet the draws at home keep the points total low.

Groningen's league form is LWWDD, and their 22 goals scored are a high figure for a side outside the top six. Their goal difference of +3 is held back by the 19 goals conceded, including five against Ajax. A win would consolidate a play-off position and push NEC further back.

Where NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen will be decided

The main contest is Groningen's attack against NEC's back line. NEC have conceded in each of their last five games and let in 1.4 per game. Groningen average 2.6 away from the numbers in their last five, and 3 per game across their two away matches.

The reverse matters as well. Groningen concede 1.8 per game over the last five and have kept one clean sheet, so NEC's 1.33 goals per game at home should find gaps. With five NEC players out, defensive cover is a worry for the hosts. Fatigue after the midweek trip could affect the second half and the hosts' ability to press, so watch how the game opens up late on.

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen head-to-head

Of the last six meetings, NEC won four and Groningen two, with no draws. Counting league games only, NEC lead 3-2. The meetings have produced 18 goals, an average of 3 per game, with both teams scoring in three and more than 2.5 goals in four.

At Stadion de Goffert NEC won 6-0 in November 2024 and 2-0 in November 2025. Groningen have won the two most recent league visits to their own ground, 2-1 in February 2025 and 2-1 on 10 May 2026.

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen prediction

This looks like an open, high-scoring game between two teams who score and concede freely. The lean is towards both teams scoring and three or more goals: NEC have scored and conceded in all five recent games, and four of Groningen's last five went over 2.5 goals.

On the result, the model edge is small. Groningen have the better table position and attack, but NEC's home record against them is strong and their draws suggest a side that rarely loses at the Goffert. A narrow result, with a slight lean to Groningen avoiding defeat, is the most sensible read. A fresh injury, or heavy rotation after Zagreb, could change that.

MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen

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