Millwall vs Derby prediction, team news and preview

Millwall vs Derby: what the match decides

Millwall host Derby at The Den on Saturday 31 October 2026 in Round 13 of the Championship. The home side are 13th with 15 points from 12 games, while Derby sit 23rd on 7 points, inside the relegation zone, with leaders Middlesbrough on 25.

For Millwall, a win would ease any lingering worry about a recent slide. For Derby, the match decides whether they can start closing the gap on the sides above them or fall further adrift. On the numbers, the home side are favourites, though not by a wide margin.

Millwall and Derby recent form

Millwall's last five read DWLDL: one win, two draws and two defeats, with 6 goals scored (1.2 per game) and 7 conceded (1.4). They kept one clean sheet and failed to score once. At The Den they have taken no wins from three (two draws, one defeat), scoring 4 and conceding 5.

Derby's last five read DDLLD: no wins, three draws and two defeats. They have scored just 4 goals (0.8 per game) and conceded 8 (1.6), with no clean sheets. Away from home they have drawn two and lost one of three, scoring 3 and conceding 6, an average of 2 goals against per away game.

Across the season Derby have 10 goals for and 21 against, a goal difference of minus 11. Millwall's is minus 1 (19 scored, 20 conceded).

Millwall vs Derby team news

Millwall have six players listed as out: J. Coburn, C. De Norre and L. Jensen (muscle injuries), M. Luongo (knee), F. Marschall (injury) and M. Servais (listed as inactive). T. Arconte is doubtful with an ankle injury.

Derby's list is longer, with nine players out: P. Agyemang (Achilles tendon), E. Cashin (inactive), M. Clarke (calf), C. Forsyth (knee), S. Langas (injury), D. Murkin (hamstring), C. Taylor (injury) and L. Travis (ankle). D. Sanderson is also out through a red card.

No line-ups are published in our data yet. They are confirmed about an hour before kick-off.

Millwall and Derby storylines

Millwall have been hard to pin down. They drew 2-2 with West Ham, won 1-0 at Preston, then lost 0-1 to Swansea at home. A 2-2 draw with Lincoln followed, and a 1-2 defeat at Portsmouth on 24 October. The pattern is of competitive games that do not quite turn into points.

Derby's story is the lack of wins: one in 12 league games, with four draws and seven defeats. Their latest results include a 1-4 loss at QPR and a 0-1 home defeat to Stoke City, followed by a 1-1 draw at Sheffield United. That draw at least stopped the slide, but the goals are still scarce.

Where Millwall vs Derby will be decided

The main contrast is Derby's attack against Millwall's home defence. Derby average 0.8 goals per game in their last five and failed to score once, so they rely on getting something from limited chances. Millwall have conceded in all but one of their last five, though, and let in 1.67 per home game.

At the other end, Derby's leaky record is the bigger factor. They have conceded 8 in five and have not kept a clean sheet in that run, so Millwall should find openings if they stay organised. With so many players missing on both sides, depth and game management may matter as much as quality.

Millwall vs Derby head-to-head

The last six Championship meetings favour Millwall: three Millwall wins, three draws and no Derby victories. The most recent was a 1-0 Millwall win at The Den on 10 March 2026, after a 1-1 draw at Derby on 10 December 2025.

These games are usually tight, with 1.83 goals per game on average. Both teams scored in four of the six, but only one game, Derby's 1-2 loss in February 2022, produced more than 2.5 goals.

Millwall vs Derby prediction

Our lean is a narrow Millwall win, with a draw the main alternative. Derby's winless run, weak scoring and heavy absences outweigh Millwall's patchy home form, and Millwall have not lost to Derby in the last six meetings.

On goals, we lean towards fewer than 2.5. Derby have gone over 2.5 in only one of their last five, and only one of the six head-to-head games has done so. The main risk is Derby's defence: if Millwall's home draws turn into another dropped lead, a low-scoring draw becomes likely.

MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch Millwall vs Derby

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