England vs Croatia prediction, team news and preview

England vs Croatia: what the match decides

England face Croatia at Wembley Stadium on Thursday 12 November 2026 in round five of the UEFA Nations League, League A Group C. England are second with 9 points from four games (three wins, one defeat) and a goal difference of +11. Their position currently points to the play-off quarter-finals, and Spain lead the group on 12 points.

Croatia are third on 3 points, with one win and three defeats and a goal difference of -10. Their position is listed as a possible play-off. For them, the match decides whether they can stay in the conversation at all, while England are trying to close the gap on Spain.

England and Croatia recent form

England have won four of their last five games, losing only 3-2 at home to Spain. They have scored 20 and conceded 7, an average of 4 scored and 1.4 conceded per game, with three clean sheets and no blank. That run includes a 6-4 win over France at the World Cup and a 3-0 home win over Czechia on 6 October. At Wembley this autumn they have played two, winning one and losing one, with 5 goals for and 3 against.

Croatia's last five read one win and four defeats, with 5 scored and 16 conceded: 1 goal scored and 3.2 conceded per game. They have no clean sheet in that run, failed to score once, and every one of those games produced more than 2.5 goals. Away from home they have played three, winning one and losing two, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their only recent win was 2-1 away to Czechia on 26 September.

England vs Croatia team news

Line-ups have not been published yet. They are confirmed about an hour before kick-off, and we will reflect any late changes in our analysis once they are known.

No absences reported so far.

Storylines for England and Croatia

England's season has been defined by scoring. Their 14 goals in four group games are the story of the table, and they have already beaten Croatia 7-0 and Czechia twice. The one blemish is the home defeat to Spain, which is why they sit behind the leaders on 12 points rather than level with them.

Croatia arrive on a run of three straight defeats in the group, with only 4 goals scored in four games and 14 conceded. Their two games against Spain brought losses of 4-1 and 2-1, and the 7-0 loss to England in the reverse fixture on 3 October is the heaviest number on their record. This is a chance to show that result was not the true level of the team.

Where England vs Croatia will be decided

The central contest is England's attack against Croatia's back line. England average 4 goals per game over their last five and 2.5 at home in this period, while Croatia concede 3.2 per game overall and 2.33 on their travels. Croatia have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five games.

The other side of it is Croatia's route to goals. They have scored just 1 per game over the same period, though they found the net in four of five games, and England have conceded in two of their last five home and away matches combined with Spain. England's defensive record is solid, with three clean sheets, but the 3-2 loss to Spain shows that a team with a sharp attack can still hurt them at Wembley.

England vs Croatia head-to-head

England have won four of the six meetings given, with one draw and one Croatia win, an average of 3.33 goals per game. Both teams scored in three of the six, and four went over 2.5 goals.

The recent results lean strongly to England: 7-0 away on 3 October 2026, 4-2 at the World Cup on 17 June 2026, 1-0 at Euro 2020 on 13 June 2021 and 2-1 in the Nations League on 18 November 2018. Croatia's win came in the 2018 World Cup semi-final (2-1), and the two teams drew 0-0 in October 2018.

England vs Croatia prediction

Our lean is an England win. Three facts drive it: England's 4 goals per game over their last five, Croatia's 3.2 conceded per game with no clean sheet, and England's 7-0 and 4-2 wins in the last two meetings. Croatia's three straight defeats in the group add to the case.

On goals, we lean towards more than 2.5 in the match: all five of Croatia's recent games cleared that line, as did two of England's two home games and four of their last five overall. Croatia scoring at least once is plausible given they found the net in four of five. A late change to either line-up, or an England home performance like the Spain defeat, is what could alter this view.

MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch England vs Croatia

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